Saudi Arabia relies more heavily on migrant labour than any other large country.
So, while it is great that India's numbers look relatively good, don't raise a cheer just yet, points out T N Ninan.
Many economists say only a substantial rise from October would point to a real recovery.
Reliance Industries (RIL's) annual report released on Sunday highlighted the company's focus on new energy solutions, with chairman and managing director (MD) Mukesh Ambani stating that the age of fossil fuels will not continue much longer. RIL has sought shareholders' approval to give Ambani another five-year term as MD till 2029 at nil salary. The recently demerged Jio Financial Services, which "will leverage the prowess of digital and retail businesses", was expected to be listed soon.
Prices are sustainable and not just driven by speculative gains
Oil accounts for about a third of India's total imports and higher dollar prices combined with a rupee near all-time lows have increased its cost.
Exports may fall below $300 bn by 2015-16 end.
The last few years have been uncharacteristically good for the Indian sugar sector for a variety of reasons. While on the one hand, the weather supported good crop production; on the other hand, the programme to blend ethanol with petrol took off in a big way. The long-pending problem of burgeoning sugarcane arrears almost came down to nil and exports boomed to record highs.
Contraction in exports continued for the 12th month in a row in November as outward shipments shrank 24.43 per cent to $ 20.01 billion amid a global demand slowdown.
From the Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra jumped 5.58 per cent, followed by Nestle, Tata Steel, NTPC, Tata Consultancy Services, Asian Paints, Wipro and Bajaj Finserv. Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank and Bajaj Finance were among the major laggards.
Retail inflation dropped marginally to 7.01 per cent in June mainly due to slight easing in prices of vegetables and pulses, though it still remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level for the sixth month in a row. The consumer price index (CPI) based inflation stood at 7.04 per cent in the preceding month of May and 6.26 per cent in June 2021. Inflation in the food basket in June 2022 was 7.75 per cent, compared to 7.97 per cent in the previous month, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Tuesday.
India's macroeconomic fundamentals are strong to deal with global challenges and the central government is committed to sticking to the fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for the current fiscal, official sources said on Monday. The government is taking steps to deal with the spiralling crude oil prices in the international market, the sources said. India meets nearly 85 per cent of its oil demand through imports and a weaker rupee makes imports costlier.
Imports too rose by 0.46 per cent to $34.25 billion during the month under review, leaving a trade deficit of $10.36 billion.
Governments encouraged motorists to switch to diesel in the belief that its superior fuel economy would outweigh the higher pollutants per litre burned.
Corporate India is more dependent than before on exporters of IT services such as Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, and Wipro for earning foreign exchange. Such companies account for nearly 43 per cent of the forex revenues of listed firms, up from 22 per cent a decade ago. The listed IT services companies earned nearly Rs 4.2 trillion through exports in FY22, up 15 per cent from the Rs 3.65 trillion a year earlier. In comparison, the forex revenues or exports of the rest of the BSE500 companies were down 11.9 per cent to Rs 5.6 trillion last financial year.
India's top oil and gas producer ONGC wants the government to scrap windfall profit tax levied on domestically produced crude oil and instead use the dividend route to tap into bumper earnings resulting from surge in global energy prices. The firm also favours a floor price for natural gas at $10 per million British thermal unit -- the current government-dictated rate -- to help bring deposits in challenging areas to production, two sources aware of the matter said. State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) management during discussions with government officials stated that levying windfall profit tax on domestic oil producers, while at the same time reaping rich savings from buying discounted oil from Russia was unfair.
Oil edged up on Tuesday, steadying after a 5 per cent plunge in the previous session that saw prices touch fresh 5-1/2-year lows in an oversupplied market.
India's appetite for imported crude oil may wane in fiscal year (FY) 2023 from record levels in pre-pandemic 2019-20 fiscal as higher oil prices, a spillover from the conflict in Ukraine, and increasing use of biofuels affect domestic demand for petroleum products. Brent crude surged to a nine-year high, shy of a July 2008 record $147.50 a barrel, before declining to around $100 a barrel - but the volatility in commodity rates will slow global economic growth and use of fuels. Demand for all oil products may grow at only 2-3 per cent in FY23, slower than the current fiscal and nearly half the 5.5 per cent growth estimated by the petroleum ministry, according to industry officials.
Lower IT exports will raise India's dependence on capital flows to fund imports.
Investors and companies should brace for higher commodity prices over the next few weeks in the backdrop of Russian troops attacking Ukraine on Thursday. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden threatened new sanctions against Russia for an act of aggression against Ukraine. All this, analysts believe, can push prices of key commodities such as crude oil, ammonia, urea, potash, and phosphates higher.
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries is reported to have held talks with Saudi Aramco on a cash and share deal for sale of a 20 per cent stake in its oil refining and petrochemical arm. Ambani had in August 2019 announced talks for the sale of a 20 per cent stake in the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business, which comprises its twin oil refineries at Jamnagar in Gujarat and petrochemical assets, to the world's largest oil exporter. The deal was to conclude by March 2020 but has been delayed for reasons not disclosed by either company.
The deficit would have been lower if gold imports hadn't shot up 85.16 per cent last month to $2.91 billion
oil market remained under pressure and big gains are unlikely.
Cumulative exports during April-August of 2017-18 rose by 8.57 per cent to $118.57 billion
The country's exports took a beating for the 13th straight month, as it fell 11.4 per cent in October on little demand for Indian made leather, handicrafts and other products from recession-hit West.
Imports also rose by 2.6 per cent to $41.1 billion in the month under review, leaving a trade deficit of $14.92 billion.
With crude oil flirting with the $100 a barrel mark, world's largest oil producer Saudi Arabia is emulating marketing savvy West to showcase oil cartel Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries in a new light when it organises the third OPEC Summit in Riyadh this week.
Oil prices could reach $100 per barrel if there were "dramatic" developments in the Gulf or elsewhere, a leading oil official has said.
The oil ministry is believed to have turned down Reliance Petroleum Ltd's request to export LPG from its newly commissioned refinery at Jamnagar in Gujarat, forcing the only-for-exports unit to sell the cooking fuel locally.
'80% of the rural and urban population don't have enough purchasing power.'
The government is considering a ban on export of kerosene oil (jet kero) and aviation turbine fuel (ATF), which are similar to kerosene, to boost supplies of kerosene for public distribution system.
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries Ltd on Friday reported a 46 per cent jump in net profit for the three months ended June on the back of bumper earnings from oil and telecom businesses. The oil-to-retail-to-telecom conglomerate's consolidated net profit rose to Rs 17,955 crore during April-June period -- the first quarter of 2022-23 fiscal year -- from Rs 12,273 crore in the year-ago period, it said a stock exchange filing.
Low fuel prices to help oil marketing and refining sectors but upstream players will stay under pressure.
Officials from State-run refiners contend that savings from purchase of Russian oil are used to offset a part of the losses in revenues from selling transport fuels and LPG at State-set rates.
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Country's exports stood at $24 billion in June last year while imports were at $35.3 billion, the data showed.
The government should scrap the windfall profit tax on domestically produced crude oil as the levy is adversely impacting the capex-intensive exploration of oil and gas, the industry said in its recommendation for the forthcoming annual Budget. India first imposed windfall profit taxes on July 1, joining a growing number of nations that tax super normal profits of energy companies. At that time, a Rs 23,250 per tonne ($40 per barrel) windfall profit tax on domestic crude production was levied.
In the Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Maruti, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Tech Mahindra and Bharti Airtel were the major laggards. Asian Paints, Bajaj Finserv, Power Grid, Reliance Industries, NTPC and UltraTech Cement were among the gainers.
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